With less than a month ahead to the definitive deadline that will forever separate the United Kingdom from the European Union, Northern Ireland is still a key to understand the political crossroad that the British are at. The Northern Irish people’s position about Brexit, their trade borders and their relative social peace born from the Good Friday Agreement are some of the essential points to understand the influence of this little territory on the future of Brussels and London.
On the 1st January the countdown finishes and the fake endlessness of the definitive divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union concludes. Meanwhile, all eyes focus on the discussion to sign a partnership agreement that allows both parts to have a friendly economic relationship after the break up.
Some of the final outstanding issues in the post-Brexit trade talks that stop these conversations from concluding in a handshake are the “level-playing field” between the territories, the fisheries conditions in British waters and the regulation of Governance for possible conflicts in the future.
However, above these topics hovers a key matter for the success of this discord: Northern Ireland. With his Internal Market Bill, Boris Johnson adds more complexity to the situation of this British region. Colin Harvey, Professor of Law at Belfast University and member of The Senator George J Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice, explains to this newspaper that in Northern Ireland there is “a deep concern about the legal disposition of the Internal Market Bill which breaks international law and undermines the Irish Protocol”. About this public bill, the Professor of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Belfast University and expert in the Northern Irish Peace Process, Dominic Bryan, contends that this “piece of legislation produced by Boris Johnson is a big mirage to satisfy unionist in Northern Ireland”.
A big part of those in Northern Ireland who consider themselves British saw Brexit as a possible threat to the union of the region with the rest of the United Kingdom. The DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) was the only one that stood with the Conservative Party to defend the Leave vote, while the republicans of Sinn Féin campaigned to remain. “Unionist have always had a very strong ethnic feeling and a big feeling of their Britishness and many of them have rejected the idea of being European”, says Bryan. However, he adds that “the unionists believed that, even when conservative promised that they will not abandon them, when the negotiations with the UE became difficult Northern Ireland would be abandoned”.
Maybe because of this, the region never had a great commitment with Brexit, and in the 2016 referendum, almost 56% of the Northern Irish citizens voted to remain in Europe. “Northern Ireland has been withdrawn from the European Union against the wishes of the most of its people”, explains Colin Harvey. According to the expert, “in Northern Ireland exists a big esteem towards the EU because of the role that it had in the success of the Peace Process of 1998”.
About the belonging feeling of the Northern Irish, Dominic Bryan explains that “the irony is that while many of us had never thought of their European identity, being honest, as it uses to happen with political identity, when someone tries to take it away from you you become more conscious of it”. “In a way, people from Northern Ireland feels more European now that they ever did before Brexit”, he adds.
Now that Brexit is a reality for the region, what consequences will it have?
For Colin Harvey, there will be many implications for the country: “Brexit has been devastating for Northern Ireland, it has been deeply destabilizing. It has meant that now half of the Irish island belongs to the EU and half doesn’t. It has reinforced questions around the border. The DUP supported Brexit and Sinn Féin opposed Brexit, which has created a new conflict between Irish and British citizens. It has perpetuated division here. We must remember that we are talking about a post-conflict society, which is emerging slowly from a past of violence” he analyses in a conversation with Aquí Europa.
The society is still very divided and Brexit has had social and political consequences, nevertheless both experts agree in their belief that violence will not come back to Northern Ireland in the way that it existed during the “troubles”.
“The social situation in Northern Ireland is totally different that the one in the 70s and 80s, we now have far greater equality, where we previously had Catholics excluded from policing, from judging in law, from the Civil Service, now they are included in all those sections of society”, Dominic Bryan explains. And he also tells how Sinn Féin has now a very different position in its way of defending a united Ireland, “they have a huge set of MPs in the Iris Parliament, they are in Government in the North, they have political power and it is not going to be in their interest to return to any sort of violence”.
About the possibility of the reunification of the Irish island Colin Harvey explains that “the conversation about it has intensified in the last two years, I have never witnessed the scale and extent of the current discussion about a constitutional change for the country”. “If you think about how half of the island belong with the EU and the other half doesn’t, for many Northern Irish that has been taken away from the EU the final conclusion is very evident: a united Ireland is a way for this region to return to the European Union” he continues saying. However, Dominic qualifies this stance and defends that “even with a united Ireland we will still have the problem of a politically and ideologically divided society”.
Besides that, as Bryan says, “Northern Ireland will continue, in a way, under the European
legislation, which could mean some economical advantages”, the society of the region lives the final exit with great concern.“Many are asking for an Irish passport in Northern Ireland, even some unionist”, explains Colin.
From the symbolic point of view, Harvey exposes that for some Northern Irish, Ireland is on the way to be “successful, modern, cosmopolitan and plural, moving to a bigger relation with his global environment”, and the Great Britain of Brexit “is becoming a retired isolated place”.
What’s next?
With regard to the future the experts cannot assure anything, but they trust in a final understanding. “The harder the Brexit the harder will be the sea borders in Ireland, not being able to arrive to an agreement would be shamelessly irresponsible”, Harvey opines. Dominic believes that in the end it will be a deal, which sees more likely after the election of Biden in the United States and after the resignation of the two more important pro-Brexit advisors in Boris Johnson’s Government.
If the agreement occurs, reflects Bryan with irony, it would not be very different to the one that Theresa May presented two years ago. In his words, “that’s the difference between the passionate identity politics, what Brexit was all about, and the rational economic need”. “I believe that pragmatic politic will win in the end”, he concludes.
(Originally published by Aquí Europa)
